The Wall Street Journal just released their latest monthly Survey of Economists. In an article on the findings, they reported:
“The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.”
Clearly, the latest jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the labor market is outperforming expectations, as it revealed that 2.5 million jobs were added. Directly before the release, experts forecasted that we would lose over 8 million jobs.
A second revelation indicating the economy is already about to turn around was also somewhat unexpected. More than 9 out of 10 economists surveyed believe the recovery has already begun this quarter or will begin in the third quarter. Here are the results of the survey question asking when the recovery will begin:The survey also asked what type of recovery the economists expect.
More than 8 out of 10 believe it will be a form of a ‘V’ recovery:
A true ‘V’ with a sharp drop and a sharp rebound
A ‘Nike Swoosh’ with a sharp drop and a more gradual recovery, coined after the company’s logo
Some experts, possibly concerned about a second wave of COVID-19, call for a ‘W’ recovery – a double dip recession.
Others call for a ‘U’ with a prolonged bottom.
A very small percentage project the dreaded ‘L’ recovery, which is no recovery at all for the foreseeable future (think of the Great Recession).
Here’s the breakdown:
Bottom Line
Though we still have a long and difficult journey ahead, it appears the worst for both the economy and the unemployment situation may be in our rearview mirror.
A recent survey by Lending Tree tapped into behaviors of over 1,000 prospective buyers. The results indicated 53% of all homebuyers are more likely to buy a home in the next year, even amid the current health crisis. The survey further revealed why, naming several reasons buyers are more likely to move this year (see graph below): Let’s break down why these are a few of the key factors motivating buyers to actively engage in the home search process, and the corresponding wins for sellers as well.
1. Low Mortgage Rates
The biggest reason potential homebuyers indicated they’re eager to purchase this year is due to current mortgage rates, which are hovering near all-time lows. Today’s low rates are making it more affordable than ever to buy a home, which is a huge incentive for purchasers. In fact, 67% of respondents in the Lending Tree survey want to take advantage of low mortgage rates. This is no surprise when comparing historic mortgage rates by decade (see below):Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Macrecently said:
“As the economy is slowly rebounding, all signs continue to point to a solid recovery in home sales activity heading into the summer as prospective buyers jump back into the market. Low mortgage rates are a key factor in this recovery.”
2. Reduced Spending
Some people have also been able to save a little extra money over the past few months while sheltering in place. One of the upsides of staying home recently is that many have been able to work remotely and minimize extra spending on things like commuting expenses, social events, and more. For those who fall into this category, they may have a bit more saved up for down payments and closing costs, making purchasing a home more feasible today.
3. Re-Evaluating Their Space
Spending time at home has also given buyers a chance to really evaluate their living space, whether renting or as a current homeowner. With time available to craft a wish list of what they really need in their next home, from more square footage to a more spacious neighborhood, they’re ready to make it happen.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers?
With these three factors in play, the demand for housing will keep growing this year, especially over the summer as more communities continue their phased approach to reopening. Buyers can take advantage of additional savings and low mortgage rates. And if you’re thinking of selling, know that your home may be in high demand as buyer interest grows and the number of homes for sale continues to dwindle. This may be your moment to list your house and make a move into a new space as well.
Bottom Line
If you’re ready to buy or sell – or maybe both – let’s connect to put your plans in motion. With low mortgage rates leading the way, it’s a great time to take advantage of your position in today’s market.
Every year, Gallup conducts a survey of Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are asked to select real estate, stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.
For the seventh year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment. Gallup explained:
“Real estate remains the most favored investment to Americans, as has been the case since 2013, when the housing market was on the rebound. More than a third of Americans have named real estate as the top investment since 2016.”
This year’s results indicated 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 21%. The full results covering the last decade are shown in the chart below:
Bottom Line
The belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment remains strong, even through the many challenges our economy faces today.
As the health crisis started making its way throughout our country earlier this spring, sellers have been cautious about putting their homes on the market. This hesitation stemmed primarily from fear of the spread of the coronavirus, and understandably so. This abundant caution has greatly impacted the number of homes for sale and slowed the pace of a typically busy spring real estate season. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americannotes:
“As more homeowners are reluctant to list their homes for sale amid the pandemic, the supply of homes available to potential home buyers continues to dwindle.”
With many states beginning a phased approach to reopening, virtual best practices and health and safety guidelines for the industry are in place to increase the comfort level of buyers and sellers. What we see today, though, is that sellers are still making a very calculated return to the market. In their latest Weekly Housing Trends Report, realtor.com indicates:
“New listings: On the slow path to recovery. Nationwide the size of declines held mostly steady this week, dropping 23 percent over last year, a slight increase over last week but still an improvement over the 30 percent declines in the first half of May.”
Although we’re starting to inch our way toward more homes for sale throughout the country, the number of homes on the market is still well below the demand from buyers. In the same report, Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research for realtor.com shares:
“Sellers have yet to come back in full force, limiting the availability of homes for sale. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks, and this trend could worsen as buyers regain confidence and come back to the market before sellers.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) seems to agree:
“In the coming months, buying activity will rise as states reopen and more consumers feel comfortable about homebuying in the midst of the social distancing measures.”
What we can see today is that homebuyers are more confident than the sellers, and they’re ready to make up for lost time from the traditional spring market. Summer is gearing up to be the 2020 buying season, so including your house in the mix may be your best opportunity to sell yet. Interest in your house may be higher than you think with so few sellers on the market today. As Vivas says:
“More properties will have to enter the market in June to bring the number of options for buyers back to normal levels for this time of the year, nationwide and in all large markets.”
Bottom Line
If you’re ready to sell your house this summer, let’s connect today. Buyers are interested and they may be looking for a house just like yours.
On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. economy is officially in a recession. This did not come as a surprise to many, as the Bureau defines a recession this way:
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”
Everyone realizes that the pandemic shut down the country earlier this year, causing a “significant decline in economic activity.”
Though not surprising, headlines announcing the country is in a recession will cause consumers to remember the devastating impact the last recession had on the housing market just over a decade ago.
The real estate market, however, is in a totally different position than it was then. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained:
“Many still bear scars from the Great Recession and may expect the housing market to follow a similar trajectory in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, there are distinct differences that indicate the housing market may follow a much different path. While housing led the recession in 2008-2009, this time it may be poised to bring us out of it.”
Four major differences in today’s real estate market are:
We must also realize that a recession does not mean a housing crash will follow. In three of the four previous recessions prior to 2008, home values increased. In the other one, home prices depreciated by only 1.9%.
Bottom Line
Yes, we are now officially in a recession. However, unlike 2008, this time the housing industry is in much better shape to weather the storm.
With more U.S. states reopening for business this summer, and as people start to return to work, we can expect the economy to begin improving. Most expert forecasts indicate this economic recovery will start to happen in the second half of this year. As we get back to work and the financial landscape of the country begins to turn around, many experts also agree that real estate has the potential to lead the way in the recovery process.
“Mortgage demand from home buyers shows unexpectedly strong and quick recovery…The quick recovery has surprised most forecasters.”
Robert Dietz, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Economics and Housing Policy of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says:
“Overall, the data lend evidence to the NAHB forecast that housing will be a leading sector in an eventual economic recovery.”
One of the big reasons why housing has the potential to be such a driving force is the significant impact it has on the local economy. This impact is particularly strong when a newly constructed home is built and sold. According to a recent study by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average new home sale has a total economic impact of $88,416. As outlined in the graphic below, this is a combination of income generated from real estate industries, expenditures, and new home construction.With so many unknowns today, especially in the wake of a worldwide pandemic, one known factor is the bright spark the housing market can play in local and national recovery. Buying and selling a home goes well beyond personal growth and satisfaction – it supports our economy as a whole.
Bottom Line
According to experts, the economy will begin to recover in the second half of this year. With real estate as a driver, that recovery may start sooner than we think.
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their May Employment Situation Summary. Leading up to the release, most experts predicted the unemployment rate would jump up to approximately 20% from the 14.7% rate announced last month.
“The May U.S. jobless rate fell to 13.3% and employers added 2.5 million jobs, blowing Wall Street expectations out of the water: Economists had forecast a loss of 8.3 million jobs and a 19.5% unemployment rate.”
“The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in U.S. history since at least 1939.”
Here are some of the job gains by sector:
Food Service and Bartenders – 1,400,000
Construction – 464,000
Education and Health Services – 424,000
Retail – 368,000
Other Services – 272,000
Manufacturing – 225,000
Professional Services – 127,000
There’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers, as 21 million Americans remain unemployed. That number is down, however, from 23 million just last month. And, of the 21 million in the current report, 73% feel their layoff is temporary. This aligns with a recent Federal Reserve Bankreport that showed employers felt 75% of the job losses are temporary layoffs and furloughs.
The Employment Situation Summary was definitely a pleasant surprise, and evidence that the country’s economic turnaround is underway. The data also offers a labor-market snapshot from mid-May, when the government conducted its monthly survey of households and businesses. Many states did not open for business until the second half of May. This bodes well for next month’s jobs report.
Bottom Line
We cannot rejoice over a report that reveals millions of American families are still without work. We can, however, feel relieved that we are headed in the right direction, and much more quickly than most anticipated.
Note: In its original report, the BLS explained that a misclassification error could have occurred over the last 3 months, starting in March of 2020. Readjusting for this error, the unemployment rate would actually show a drop from 19.7% in April to 16.3% in May. Nobody would say the original report of 13.3% unemployment was a good number, nor is the revised 16.3%. What is a positive move for our country and the economy is the significant drop in the rate from April to May, meaning more people are getting jobs than losing them. That’s the key takeaway.
Tomorrow morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest Employment Situation Summary, which will include the most current unemployment rate. It will be a horrific number. Many analysts believe unemployment could be greater than 20%. These numbers represent families across the nation that are not sure when (or if) they will return to work. The emotional impact on these households is devastating.
There are, however, some small rays of light shining through on this issue. Here are three:
1. The actual number of unemployed is less than many are reporting
The number of people unemployed is sometimes over-exaggerated. It seems that every newscaster talks about the 40+ million people “currently” unemployed. It is true that, over the last ten weeks, over 40.7 million people have applied for unemployment. It is also true, however, that many of those people have already returned to work or gotten a new job. The actual number of people currently unemployed is 21.1 million. This is still a horrible number, but about half of what is often being reported.
2. Of those still unemployed, most are temporary layoffs
Last month’s unemployment report showed that 90% of those unemployed believe their status is temporary. Friday’s report will probably show a decline in that percentage as the original number was somewhat optimistic. However, a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank showed that employers believe over 75% of job losses are temporary layoffs and furloughs. This means 3 out of 4 people should be returning to work as the economy continues to recover.
3. Those on unemployment are receiving assistance
According to a recent study from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago, 68% of those who are eligible for unemployment insurance receive benefits that exceed lost earnings, with 20% receiving benefits at least twice as large as their lost earnings.
Bottom Line
Tomorrow’s report will be difficult to digest. However, as the nation continues to reopen, many of those families who are impacted will be able to return to work.
The travel industry is one of the major sectors that’s been hit extremely hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, it’s hard to know how long it will take for summer travelers to be back in action and for the industry to fully recover. Homeowners who rent their secondary properties on their own or through programs like Airbnb, which has over 660,000 listings in the U.S. alone, have been impacted in this challenging time. Some of these homeowners are considering selling their vacation homes, and understandably so.
“With global travel screeching to a halt during the pandemic, a number of Airbnb hosts are planning to sell their properties…These desperate moves come as hosts face the possibility of losing thousands of dollars a month in canceled bookings while bills, maintenance costs, and mortgage payments pile up.”
If you’re one of the property owners in this position, you too may be feeling the pain of decreased travel, especially as we prepare for the typical busy summer vacation season. A recent survey notes that 48% of Americans have already canceled summer travel plans due to the current health crisis. In addition, 36% indicated they don’t have vacation plans, and only 16% said they did not cancel their summer travel.
The same survey also asked, “How long will you wait before traveling again?” Not surprisingly, only 29% of respondents are planning to travel within the next 6 months. That means 71% are putting their plans on hold for at least 6 months, or are still unsure about future travel. That can continue to add to the significant income loss that many property renters felt this spring.If you’re considering selling your rental property, know that there are two key factors indicating that selling your vacation home now may be your best move as a homeowner.
1. Inventory Shortage
The inventory of overall homes for sale is well below the demand from potential buyers, so many eyes may be searching for a home like yours. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), total housing inventory, meaning homes available to purchase, is down 19.7% from one year ago (see graph below):Inventory across the country continues to be a challenge, with only a 4.1-month supply of listings available at the current sales pace. For a balanced market, where there are enough homes available for interested buyers to purchase, that number would need to bump up to a 6-month supply. This means we don’t have enough inventory for the number of buyers looking for homes, so selling in this scenario is ideal. Buyers are looking now, and some vacation homes make a great primary residence or second home for those eager to escape from more populated urban areas.
2. Home Prices
The lack of inventory is also keeping homes from depreciating in value. Today, prices are holding strong and experts forecast home price appreciation to continue throughout this year. Selling your home while prices are holding steady is a sound business move. You’ll likely have equity you’ve earned working for you as well. If your home has been vacant for the past few months, the forced savings you have built in your equity may help balance out possible rental income loss due to the slowdown in the travel industry.
Bottom Line
We don’t know exactly when heightened summer travel will return or what it will look like when it does. If you’re considering selling your vacation home, let’s connect today to determine your options in the current market.
As we enter the summer months and work through the challenges associated with the current health crisis, many are wondering what impact the economic slowdown will have on home prices. Looking at the big picture, supply and demand will give us the clearest idea of what’s to come.
Making our way through the month of June and entering the second half of the year, we face an undersupply of homes on the market. Keep in mind, this undersupply is going to vary by location and by price point. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), across the country, we currently have a 4.1 months supply of homes on the market. Historically, 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. Anything over 6 months is a buyer’s market, meaning prices will depreciate. Anything below 6 months is a seller’s market, where prices appreciate. The graph below shows inventory across the country since 2010 in months supply of homes for sale.Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Home Builders Association (NAHB) says:
“As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role. Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt. Estimates vary, but based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units.”
Given the undersupply of homes on the market today, there is upward pressure on prices. Looking at simple economics, when there is less of an item for sale and the demand is high, consumers are willing to pay more for that item. The undersupply is also prompting bidding wars, which can drive price points higher in the home sale process. According to a recent MarketWatch article:
“As buyers return to the market as the country rebounds from the pandemic, a limited inventory of homes for sale could fuel bidding wars and push prices higher.”
In addition, experts forecasting home prices have updated their projections given the impact of the pandemic. The major institutions expect home prices to appreciate through 2022. The chart below, updated as of earlier this week, notes these forecasts. As the year progresses, we may see these projections revised in a continued upward trend, given the lack of homes on the market. This could drive home prices even higher.
Bottom Line
Many may think home prices will depreciate due to the economic slowdown from the coronavirus, but experts disagree. As we approach the second half of this year, we may actually see home prices rise even higher given the lack of homes for sale.
My name is John Bendele and these are words to live by.
“What is the biggest challenge you are facing in life right now and how can I help?”
I believe when you are able to help others in their struggles, it will always bring a since of joy and accomplishment that is like no other. I enjoy bringing opportunities to people in real estate and in life. To be a lifting hand and a beacon of knowledge. It brings me great joy to guide and support others when making exciting and difficult choices. I have been a licensed realtor for over 7 years in Minnesota. Coming from a construction background, I will provide a wealth of knowledge about homes. Knowing homes allows me to a better negotiator with facts and details some may not. I enjoy working with sellers, investors and buyers.
I grew up in Southwest Texas and moved to Minnesota in 2015. I have lived in the White Bear Lake area until making a move over the lake to Willernie, MN where I now reside. I love spending quality time with my teenage boys who nicknamed me “JoJo”. My favorite things to do are being outdoors on or in the water, BBQing (TX style) and going on any adventure.
I want to bring knowledge, growth, excitement and wealth to the clients I encounter through being a realtor. I look forward to assisting you in your amazing journey in real estate.
Thank you,
John A Bendele
Meet Brittany
Brittany is a mama of three kiddos, a wife of a firefighter and added more love to her home with three dogs and two cats. Outside of the fun she has as an agent and her roles at home she enjoys doing any DIY projects she can get her hands on!
Brittany fell in love with the Real Estate gig in 2019. She grew up in Apple Valley, and now owns her childhood home. I guess you could say she is a south metro pro!
You!
Hey! If you’re looking for your next role as an agent let us know! This could be you!
Meet Shea Amundson
Hey, I’m Shea and I love helping people find a beautiful home that sets their soul on fire!
Meet Katie
Katie comes from the busy world of entertainment and being a Traveling Operations Manager. She transitioned to Real Estate back in 2018 and has been hooked ever since! Katie thrives on training, developing new systems, and helping agents grow! Katie joins Voila with the determination to help every agent and client make their dream a reality whether it be building their business or finding that dream home!
When Katie isn’t working, she is a full-time student at Metropolitan University. She enjoys cooking foods from all over the world, traveling, and has a habit of getting a new tattoo wherever she goes. She is huge into animal conservation and spending time with her dog Sawyer who often joins her on travels!
Meet Sarah Beth Lindstrom
Sarah wants to live in a world filled with innovative businesses daring enough to break the mold…monthly auto-shipments of Laffy Taffy’s, and lots and lots of laughter!!!
Having been in the real estate industry since 2005, her go to role has always been supporting her teams in any way that she can! She has gone from Listing and Transaction Management, to Team Manager, and now Director of Support! She is an ‘introverted extrovert’ that finds the, ‘behind the scenes’ with a hint of showing homes – to be a perfect blend.
When she’s not supporting her Voila Family, she is out getting one more rep in at the gym, finding new healthy recipes to attempt (and then trick her teenager into eating somehow), and enjoying quick road trips to…well, anywhere! She also plays on a competitive volleyball team in the winter, sand volleyball in the summer and softball in the spring and fall.
“Two things define you. The patience you have when you have nothing and the attitude when you have everything.”
Meet Jessi Andersen
In June of 2020 Jessi joined team of Voila…and…it’s that easy!
Ha! No really, it did all begin in June. New to this side of Real Estate, Jessi joined in hopes to take her chatty, outgoing self and bring some good of it! Her natural tendencies of networking and love of growth and goals, have been set in direction – expanding Voila!
Where is Jess when she isn’t nurturing the growth of Voila? Adventuring with her family outside in nature. Or perhaps baking up a new recipe while dancing the day away – and of course cheering for her little athletes at home, as well as the MN Vikings/Twins!
“In the end it is not the years in your life that count. It’s the life in your years” ~ Abe Lincoln
Meet Wyatt Lemon
Wyatt is a Real Estate Extraordinaire, and a Loving Husband, and a Lover of Life and a PAW-rent to 3 awesome dogs. Huge believer in the idea that life is what you make of it, so with that being said I guess you could say the glass is half full! Things I enjoy outside of work are Yoga, being a big time Foodie, and spending time with my family. I grew up in Hugo MN and have been a local resident my whole life. I studied Marketing at Century College as well as St. Cloud State University. I got into Real Estate in October of 2018 and have loved every minute of it!
Meet James Andersen
James Andersen is a human being who believes that the best in others is a reflection of the energy we bring.
Magnanimous behavior is the standard not the exception.
10+ years Army Career
5+ years Married
5+ years Father of Calendar Crushers
5+ years Real Estate Career
30+ years Life Experience
Let’s learn and grow together.
Meet Joey Torkildson
You are writing your own story in life! Is what you are doing right now supposed to be in that story? I hope so!
That’s why my goal is to always sign up, get uncomfortable, inspire through doing, shoot, then aim. We don’t have enough time on this planet to stay mundane and there are too many experiences to be doing one thing for too long! It’s all about the short term experiments!
Quick background: 19+ year US Army Master Sergeant vet; 10+ year transformer of lives through ownership (AKA: Realtor) ; 2+ year CEO of an Expansion Team with Hergenrother Realty Group ; Director of Agent Training with that same organization; Self employed for 12+ years; starting in late 2019 CoFounded a new disruptive real estate brokerage, Voila; Contagiously energetic teacher who loves helping people discover they can accomplish anything; Dad of two extremely crazy and loving boys; Husband of an amazingly supportive and ultimate gardener wife.
Let’s be curious explorers together! I love connecting with people and helping them achieve their goals and I’m a firm believer in the fact that you are one introduction away from your entire life changing!
Two quotes I live by: Amazing things rarely happen in your comfort zone and only those who attempt the absurd achieve the impossible!
The survey also asked what type of recovery the economists expect.
